While the circumstances behind the sale of Upp are relatively unique, observers believe that many of the more than 100 so-called “alt nets” – mostly small broadband providers rolling out services across the country – will be snapped up by the biggest telecoms players as market conditions get tougher.
“Alt nets are a key piece of the connectivity jigsaw, but consolidation has been inevitable as new sources of funding dry up, focus on take-up intensifies and investors increasingly demand returns,” said Matthew Howett, the founder and chief executive at Assembly Research.
“Today’s announcement could well be the first domino to fall in terms of an alt net being bought by one of the big players.”
Vodafone confirms talks with Three UK about merger
“While the parties might view consolidation as a way to improve returns and unlock shareholder value, we expect the CMA would be eager to protect against the risk of consumer price rises – particularly in light of the current cost of living crisis,” said James Robinson, a senior analyst at Assembly. “We would therefore expect this issue to be the most contentious point within a Three-Vodafone merger, and would potentially require legally binding concessions.”
Squid Game’s success reopens debate over who should pay for rising internet traffic
We’ve not seen the widespread blocking or throttling of traffic that was feared,” says Matthew Howett, the founder of the telecoms consultancy Assembly.
“There is a stress testing of the rules going on,” Howett says. “The challenge is not a new one, it is about increasing margins and profitability for investors and they see revenue opportunities from those big content providers.”
Can Adam Crozier help connect BT to a bright future?
“I think a major move back into building sports rights and the pay-TV business is a long shot,” says Matthew Howett, an analyst at Assembly Research. “With potential movement in the future ownership structure of parts of BT it would be an unwanted distraction to move the focus from core connectivity back to content.”
Huawei decision 'may delay 5G by three years and cost UK £7bn'
Matthew Howett, the founder of the research firm Assembly, said: “Mobile phone operators have so far cherry-picked the major urban areas to deploy 5G, but changing the rules now will mean delays for the rest of the country.”
Previous research conducted by Assembly on behalf of the telecoms firms BT, Vodafone, O2 and Three, concluded the UK would suffer an economic hit of £6.8bn from not deploying 5G and risk falling behind continental Europe.
“We also thought it would set the UK back 18 to 24 months, but Dowden went further and said it would be three years,” Howett said. “Anywhere where coverage is already poor is now going to have to wait longer.”
How feasible is Labour's free broadband plan and part-nationalisation of BT?
Would nationalising broadband work?
Australia has tried to do this with its National Broadband Network and it has been branded one of the biggest infrastructure failures in its history. Set up in 2006, the government’s plan was to roll out full fibre to 93% of all premises, although over the years this was watered down to a “multi-technology mix” using different technologies offering varying levels of speed and service to consumers. “Only one other country in the world has come close to going down this route, Australia,” says Matthew Howett, the principal analyst at telecoms research firm Assembly. “And for a good reason – it’s hard, expensive and fraught with difficulty. Australia’s NBN is years late, massively overbudget and offering speeds and technology a fraction of the original political intention.”
UK mobile operators ignore security fears over Huawei 5G
The consultancy Assembly suggests a partial to full restriction on Huawei could result in an 18-to-24-month delay to the widespread availability of 5G in the UK. The UK would then fail to become a world leader in 5G – a key government target – costing the economy between £4.5bn and £6.8bn.
“If we had banned Huawei and everyone was just using Ericsson, we would have had a day without any mobile coverage on any network – not a good position to be in,” said Matthew Howett at Assembly.
“There is the whole debate about where the core and access network are delineated,” said Howett. “But the reality is that the operators are all using Huawei to an extent – they are quite happy with it. The government has huge ambitions for what 5G can deliver to the economy, and a bad decision based on politics could seriously stop that from being a reality.”