Research for DCMS projects an internet-based future for UK TV distribution but highlights the need to resolve questions relating to spectrum, adoption and network reliability
Report on the future of TV distribution projects a continued uptake of internet-delivered services
On 8 November 2024, the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) published a report examining how the distribution and consumption of TV may develop out to 2040 without further policy intervention, as well as gaps in the evidence base that may warrant additional research. The report describes the shifting TV landscape in the UK, broadly from broadcast digital terrestrial television (DTT) to internet-delivered TV (IPTV), with more households (18%) using the internet exclusively as their TV delivery mechanism than those relying on DTT (17%). Several supply and demand factors are driving this trend, including:
The proliferation and popularity of US-based streaming players and the evolved offerings of public service broadcasters (PSBs);
Innovations in end user experience (e.g. start over, playlist and personalisation features); and
A high majority of all TV sets sold now being internet-capable.
While internet delivery is the fastest-growing mode of TV distribution in the UK, the report finds that traditional Pay TV providers Sky and Virgin Media have seen declining subscriber bases, although the free-to-air DTT broadcast platform, Freeview, is proving resilient.
The reliability of IPTV services and their adoption among certain groups represent two distinct challenges for policymakers and providers
One eye-catching projection is that, based on current market dynamics, 95% of UK households will have an internet-capable TV by 2040, with 71% relying exclusively on the internet for their consumption of TV services. Fast, reliable and widespread broadband will be necessary to make this expectation a reality and to support increasing demand for IPTV services. While superfast broadband access is predicted to reach at least 99.65% of homes by 2030, the report anticipates that 5% of homes (1.5m) will still rely on DTT in 2040. They will largely draw from specific demographics, including the elderly and those with disabilities or on lower incomes. As such, future research should focus on understanding the barriers to these groups’ take-up of IPTV and, if there is a case for switching off DTT, explore potential interventions to support them to migrate. Though the report states that the technology underpinning internet TV delivery is mature and core network capacity will be able to manage 100% of the UK’s TV viewing by 2040 (even with respect to peak traffic), it sees service providers’ lack of control over the access and in-home networks as having scope to create reliability issues – adding that IPTV would require more reliable end-to-end networks to match the performance of current DTT networks. Reliability of IPTV relative to DTT is one of four gaps in DCMS’s policy and evidence, along with:
A policy direction on technology migration to increase the spectrum efficiency;
Ensuring households have access to IPTV services on main and secondary TV sets; and
Solving in-home networking issues.
Assigning more spectrum to mobile services will not only impact DTT, but also the PMSE sector
Spectrum will be central to internet-delivered TV, with DTT broadcasting expected to be the only primary service in its allocated UHF spectrum (470-694MHz) until at least 2031 in ITU Region 1 (i.e. Europe, Middle East and Africa). However, the report notes the increasing pressure to release 600MHz spectrum currently used for DTT for mobile services, with co-primary use of the band set for consideration at WRC-31. While any decision made at the conference is likely to take several years to implement, additional costs or disruption could be reduced by taking policy steps to mitigate the likely impact. For instance, if DTT has a long-term future, the UK should prepare for the potential implications of co-primary, including modernisation of the DTT network to mitigate the risk of some loss of spectrum after 2031 and to continue using the available spectrum effectively. The simpler, lower-cost way of achieving this would be to broadcast all channels using DVB-T2 and MPEG4, technology introduced for Freeview HD broadcasts in 2009 that would be compatible with most TV sets sold over the last 15 years. By giving sufficient advance notice, all households could be ready well before 2031. Nevertheless, if further spectrum is released to mobile, Programme Making and Special Events (PMSE) will lose access, as this sector can only share the spectrum used by TV broadcasting, and also needs a predictable allocation of spectrum to develop compatible equipment.
European countries have continued to support DTT to address concerns over access for vulnerable groups
The report also considers the future of TV distribution from environmental and international perspectives, finding – despite limited publicly available information – that IPTV results in higher emissions than DTT due to its distribution infrastructure (including data centres) and in-home devices (modems and routers). Looking at the situation elsewhere, the report states that there are no directly comparable territories to the UK in terms of indicating a parity timeline for the transition to IPTV, but France, Italy and Spain provide some useful comparisons in terms of high DTT usage. In these countries, the risk of digital exclusion and the need to maintain access for vulnerable audiences are widespread concerns that have informed DTT preservation policies. In the UK, the Government has committed to supporting DTT until 2034, broadly in line with when broadcasters state it is unlikely to be commercially attractive, although it is hoped that certainty over the country’s future approach to DTT will come much sooner – potentially even within the next year or so.
