Delays to the government’s plan to roll out superfast broadband across the country could see the UK lose almost £30bn in economic benefits, according to research published today.
Telecoms analysts warned a 12-month delay to the 2025 target would mean the UK misses out on a £9.7bn boost to the economy, while a two-year setback would cost £28.7bn.
“Access to reliable, future-proof digital infrastructure for all isn’t a luxury, but now accepted as a necessity whether it’s used for work, education or play,” said Matthew Howett, principal analyst and founder of Assembly Research.
“Increasing investment in key digital infrastructure will provide the bounce-back and economic recovery the UK will desperately need in the months and years ahead.”
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A route forward is unclear. Some rebels may accept a cap lower than 35%. But others are siding with Trump, arguing that security concerns and alleged Chinese government influence over the company mean that it should be banned completely. Huawei has repeatedly said such fears are unfounded. The latter route would be expensive and convoluted: It would delay Britain’s 5G roll-out by two years and cost the U.K. economy 6.8 billion pounds ($8.5 billion), according to London-based technology analyst firm Assembly Research, harming productivity and risking the loss of key investment in 5G technology like connected factories and automated vehicles.
“It comes at an unwelcome time,” said that report’s author, Matthew Howett. “We’ve all come to realize just how important and crucial connectivity is, and anyone who’s had a poor experience will want those upgrades to happen yesterday, not in another 24 months’ time.”
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“Vodafone was caught between a rock and a hard place,” said Matt Howett, founder of Assembly Research, noting that although the company was simply later than its rivals in raising prices its timing was poor. “It doesn’t look good,” he said.
Mr Howett said that price rises that could have been frozen undermine those efforts. “You are giving with one hand and taking away with another. What consumers really feel most right now is what is coming out of their pockets,” he said.
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“We will need to watch what traffic patterns are like to ensure a smooth experience for everyone,” said Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly, a telecoms regulatory consultancy firm in London. “Some people are experiencing problems with online services. But that’s a problem with those services, and not the network.”
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Matt Howett, an analyst with Assembly, said that although the Huawei decision is important for the UK industry, it could have a negative effect on the economy if telecoms companies end up having to delay the roll out of 5G networks in order to comply with the cap.
“This will cost the economy if there is a material delay on 5G rollouts,” he said.
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Full-fibre broadband to reach more of the UK
Matthew Howett, founder of research firm Assembly, sympathised with Openreach's frustration over business rates.
"It's a barrier that the whole industry is behind removing. Currently in England the exemption only lasts for five years, and 10 years in Scotland, but for the operators the business case for rolling out fibre is over a much longer period, often over 15 years."
He also acknowledged that "broadband, while digital, can still be a very analogue and labour-intensive job to install".
"As much as 70% of the cost of rolling out broadband is in the civil works - the digging, manual labour and road closures that go with it. So, any innovations that reduce these costs will ultimately result in broadband being deployed faster, and to more people."
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"As end-of-term report cards go, this is probably about as good as you can hope for," said Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly Research.
"The leap in the availability of full-fibre shows just how serious operators are in making up for lost time and how, with the right regulatory and political environment, they can go even further.
"Next year will be crucial for determining what that pace of rollout looks like as Ofcom is due to set out the rules for how such networks will be regulated for the next five years."
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A Labour Party plan to provide government-sponsored broadband service has raised questions about how it would work, and who would pay for it.
No other country provides free government-run broadband service, said Matthew Howett, the founder and principal analyst at Assembly Research, a firm that studies telecommunications.
The prospects of several other companies that compete with Openreach and have pledged billions in investment for their own initiatives would be thrown into doubt after the debut of a free government-run service.
“They all would disappear,” Mr. Howett said. “There is no way consumers are going to be paying them if they can get it for free from the government.”
“Superfast is good enough for today,” Mr. Howett said. “But it’s not going to be good enough for the world we’re entering in the 2020s and 2030s.”
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Matthew Howett, principal analyst at Assembly Research, said the “wheels would come off” the competitive market if it was replaced by a “bland public owned corporation selling standard connectivity”. That would hit innovation and investment in new services as it is hard to compete with free.
He also asked whether consumers would look forward to dealing with government customer services every time they had a problem with their WiFi. “No one says BT is perfect. It’s excruciating to deal with but dealing with the government would be like pulling teeth. It will be a nightmare,” he said.
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But full-fibre broadband, where ultra-fast optical cables carry data right into your home or office, is currently the "gold standard".
"There is no doubt that we need fibre connectivity, in particular all the way to the home. That's something everybody is on board with across the industry and political parties," said Matthew Howett, an analyst at Assembly Research.
However, the government plans to auction lower-frequency spectrum - freed up from the digital TV switchover - for 5G services.
"The 700MHz frequency band that will be auctioned is good at covering large rural areas," said Mr Howett. "Anything freed up from that switchover from analogue to digital TV means you can reach more people with fewer base stations."
