On 6 June 2018, Three UK held an analyst event focused on recent network developments, spectrum holdings and plans to launch 5G. While specific details around their 5G launch remain under-wraps, there’s a clear ambition to be a leader from the start. The recent acquisition of fixed wireless access broadband provider Relish, and success in the recent Ofcom auction have positioned Three well to extend their footprint and what can be achieved.
4G network network developments and spectrum portfolio enhancements
The briefing started with an update on how the 4G network rollout is progressing and recent site enhancements. Despite the progress over the last 15 years, Three still see themselves as sub-scale and are targeting growth and higher NPS (despite already being above other UK MNOs). Despite this, they punch above their weight in network performance tests and have strengthened their 4G network. 800MHz is now deployed on a significant percentage of sites (upgrades have been taking place since 2015), and 75% of customers are now able to use this spectrum. Progress here is significant since NPS is almost double for these customers compared to non-800MHz users.
Further 4G enhancements are planned with an additional 10MHz of spectrum currently being used for 3G set to be refarmed for 4G services. More spectrum will be added to the portfolio following the purchase of 1400MHz (L-band) spectrum. This downlink only spectrum with boosted power-levels will achieve roughly the same coverage as what 800MHz can provide.
The road to 5G and ambition to be a leader in the pact
After being unsuccessful in their attempt to acquire O2, and well publicised opposition to Ofcom’s competition measures in the 2.3GHz and 3.4GHz spectrum auction, Three needed a new narrative. This has largely come as a result of acquiring FWA broadband provider Relish. The firm has large portfolio of spectrum that gives Three a strong foothold in the race to launch 5G.
Three mostly see 5G as about more capacity (at least in the early stages). 2019 will very much be about a trial phase for the network rather than the time for announcements about a full launch. The business case being built internally is not predicated on any of the new use cases that are touted such as driverless cars, instead investment decisions are all based around capacity gains which they need to grow into to realise their growth and NPS ambitions. Anything else is being seen as an additional benefit.
When asked how 5G leadership would be measured, Dave Dyson singled out improvements in growth and NPS. He went on to say that it wouldn’t be about claiming speed advantages or population coverage (and so won’t be advertising such) but rather about a broader experience and opportunity that 5G unlocks – ‘just having a foot in the door [with 5G] can massively reset expectations of what can provide’.
While 5G is still mostly vendor push, hype among MNOs has started to take hold
The general feeling in the industry is that 5G is still largely a push from the vendor community rather than a pull from the networks. Many of the touted use cases have yet to materialise and have bigger hurdles in society that need to be overcome first. That said, none of the operators want to be left behind and so some consumer proposition is needed once technical standards are in place. As such, we have started to see a flurry of anouncements.
On the same day as the Three briefing, EE announced that it would switch on the UK’s first 5G trial network across ten sites in East London in October 2018. While the detail remain unclear, the equipment vendor lined up is Huawei (also likely to provide the end user devices) with a 64 x 64 MIMO deployment on sites. Vodafone’s announcement followed on 20 June with plans for seven 5G test cities, with roll-outs starting between October and December 2018. While O2 was arguably the first to start talking publicly about 5G back in February 2018, so far no further details have been communicated in terms of the testbed launch.
